You can make your own NFL predictions if you have a good system. In this article, I want to discuss the bare basics of a successful system that has been used and tweaked by many pro gamblers.
Many professional gamblers have done extensive historical probability analysis of NFL games using advanced data mining techniques. What they found is incredibly interesting.
They observed that the NFL season obeys an unwritten law of "parity". What this means is that is exceptional for a team to go on a long winning or losing streak.
Contrast this with other sports like soccer where a team can go on a winning or unbeaten run of half of the season or even a losing run of the same amount of time.
Average Winning And Losing Streak
For instance, in seasons gone by, the average winning streak is approximately 2.8 games.
The average losing streak is approximately 2.8 games.
What implications does this have for our betting and how can we profit from it?
How To Make Your Own NFL Predictions
The result of this observation is that a high percentage of teams who have won 2 games in a row will then go on to lose their next game. The reverse is also true – a high percentage of teams who have lost 2 games in a row will recover and go on to record a win in their next game.
I would advise you to bet on such teams when you see the opportunity. The stronger the team is that is due for a win, the higher the confidence of your bet. If a team is due a loss and they are in the lower reaches of the table anyway, then also give this bet a higher confidence.
And if you find a team that has had a string of 3 results in a row then it is almost a sure bet that they will turn it around for the next game! This is an extremely high confidence bet!
Source by Donnie Carter
My opinions belong to nobody but myself.